**TL; DR:**
Unless Nintendo has some serious plans hidden away (i.e. whole new console for 2024), there is no way the Switch is dead pre-2030. If Nintendo comes out with either Switch Lite 2.0 and/or Switch Pro circa 2024-2026, then it’s very much alive until at least 2026-2028.
Of course, after that, there will still be millions of core Switch fans that don’t move to the new console until it’s cheaper/better, if at all; thus, the Switch will remain fairly alive until at least 2027, if not 2035. Years after its end, as is the case with most major consoles.
Following the logic of YouTubers, the PS4 must be ‘dead’ now, since it no longer has new major games, and the PS5 is going strong. Yet, the PS4 is still actively supported by Sony, and has millions of core users. The PS4 won’t be dead until at least 2030 (17 years). Just like the PSP, Xbox 360, and others (16–17 years).
Consoles seem to die about half-way into the life of the next generation. In other words, about 15 years (where a whole generation is akin to a whole generation of users: 25 years). This makes perfect sense.
Thus, **the Switch will last, overall, at least 15 years (2017-2032)**.
**Let’s talk about it.**
So, there has been a lot of talk over the last few months, that the Switch is coming to an end (at least, somewhat officially). The problem is as follows:
* Even if Nintendo has major Switch Pro plans for 2024-2025, the Switch OLED is still pretty new and selling fairly well.
* They are still pumping out lots of digital content, and new physical games are going to be pumped out into 2024, at least.
* There is unspeakable support for the Switch overall, considering the strong fanbase across the Internet, and the unit sales (according to this [Wiki page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles), reporting the sales at around 125 million as of mid-2023, making it one of the best-selling consoles of all time), driven by its hybrid nature, lack of major competition, and Switch-only titles.
Yes, most of these unit sales are from 2017-2018 with the original Switch, as everybody rushed on it. But, it’s still selling about as good as any other single console right now, if you compare all the numbers. (Note that the Wiki link above also shows that every other niche, hybrid, and/or handheld console is failing horribly, or else doesn’t even exist. There are no realistic alternatives to the Switch. The numbers speak for themselves. Maybe the PlayStation Q takes off, but I don’t think it’ll reach Switch levels at all, for a few reasons — and it won’t hurt Switch sales too much.)
Further, if Nintendo merely updates the Switch family in some way, even as early as late-2024, then there won’t be much — if any — shift away from the Switch as such until at least 2026, with support remaining until at least 2030. It’s illogical for them to bring out a Switch Pro for just 1–2 years; and it’s illogical for them to radically shift away from the Switch family of consoles too early!
Following this logic, the Switch family (v1 through Pro) must remain not only official, but very much alive until at least 2026. This is in keeping with the life span of such a dominant, wide-ranging (either at the level of hardware or software) consoles, as the Game Boy, PS2, and Wii. After that, it shall remain semi-supported and semi-popular until at least 2030.
The fact that Tears of the Kingdom is the last big Zelda game on the system does not mean it’s coming to an end. Yet, I have heard this a few times from big YouTubers and such over the last few weeks.
Let’s have a look at the facts.
**Hardware**
On the unit/model front, we know that it’s likely that a Pro model comes along by 2024 and remains strong until at least 2026. We know this because that’s how it has been for almost every major console (from all companies) since the late-1990s.
The Switch is, of course, both handheld and home, which is a bit messy — but it’s primarily a home console (if we look at the stats on sales and how most people play with it).
However, it’s possible that we don’t get the Switch Pro until 2025 or so, only furthering the life span (unless there is a whole cultural move away from the Switch, which seems unlikely).
To make a long story short, we typically see a new model/upgrade to a system every 2 years, for a total of 3–4 upgrades. After that, the system itself is slowly phased out for 2–6 years, until the new system comes out (i.e. PS4 > PS5), giving us a total life of around 8–14 years. Obviously, this depends on many factors, including (a) company direction; (b) tech issues/exact nature of the system; and (c) how long you can keep the current system dominant/strong for. After that, you will have a few extra years of support and/or popularity, until it’s fully dead after around 12–18 years.
Even if the new Switch Pro only sells 20 million units, if you couple that with the 15 million OLED sales (as of 2023), then that’s still close to the PS5 sales, and that’s only 30% of the entire Switch family/models!
We are not only not near the end of the Switch, we’re really only about 50% of the way through, I believe.
**Software**
So, let’s look into this idea that *every Nintendo console ends with a big Zelda game*.
* The NES ended with Zelda II in 1987, yet the SNES did not come out until 1990 (and the NES still saw support and popularity for a few years, more so outside of Japan and America, as everywhere else got it much later). Let’s just call it 4 years, then. However, we saw a few popular titles for the NES, post-1990, including Mega Man 6, Pac-Man, Jurassic Park, Alien 3, Bomberman II, Batman Returns, Mega Man 5, Contra Force, Panic Restaurant, Yoshi, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles III, The Addams Family, Mega Man 4, Mega Man 3, Dr. Mario, Castlevania III, and Final Fantasy.
* The SNES ended with A Link to the Past in 1991, yet the N64 did not come out until 1996 (and the SNES still saw support and popularity for a few years, more so outside of Japan and America, as everywhere else got it much later). Let’s just call it 6 years, then. However, we saw a few popular titles for the SNES, post-1996, including Frogger, Kirby’s Dream Land 3, Madden NFL 98, Space Invaders, Harvest Moon, Donkey Kong Country 3, SimCity 2000, Ms. Pac-Man, and Super Mario RPG.
* The N64 ended with Majora’s Mask in 2000, and the GameCube did come out in 2001 (more so, 2002 world-wide). Of course, the N64 still remained popular into the 2000s, and saw some popular titles between 2000 and 2002 (after the last Zelda game), including Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 2 and 3, Dr. Mario 64, Madden NFL 2002, Pokémon Stadium 2, Conker’s Bad Fur Day, Paper Mario, Banjo-Tooie, Spider-Man, Batman Beyond, Star Wars Episode I, and Mega Man 64.
* The GameCube ended with Twilight Princess in 2006, and the Wii came out in 2006. Well, this was right on the money. No major titles came out post-Princess. This was a clear shift to kill the GameCube and replace it with the Wii, a whole new direction (likely because the GameCube was failing, and they had no hope to directly compete with the PS2/Xbox). And, it was one of the last games for the GameCube.
* The Wii ended with Skyward Sword in 2011, and the Wii U came out in 2012 (but, the world did not get it until 2013 or so). However, the Wii got some major titles or ports post-2011, including Mario Party 9, LEGO Batman 2, The Amazing Spider-Man, LEGO: The Lord of the Rings. And, it remained popular beyond this point, of course.
* The Wii U ended in 2017 with Breath of the Wild, and the Switch came out in 2017 with the same title. However, the Wii U is also still fairly popular (and is a decent home version of the Switch for many core titles, such as Zelda), though no major games came out after Breath of the Wild! Some people still play the Wii U instead of the Switch as of 2023; however, the store was just closed in 2023, so it’s really ending now, after 11 years.
* The Switch has just seen Tears of the Kingdom this year (2023), with the Switch having arrived with Breath of the Wild in 2017. Well, if the home consoles are any indication, we at least have a few years left before the Switch is fully dead: more likely that we see at least 5 cool games over 2023 and 2024, and a few years of semi-support after that as millions keep playing the games that already exist.
Of course, it’s a bit more confusing than this, given all the handhelds. And, it’s possible that Nintendo plans on really sticking with the Switch, in which case, they may be planning on a third Zelda game for it, or else a new massive Mario game. That will boost its energy again, more so, if coupled with a Pro model circa 2024-2025.
All of this leads me to believe that the Switch will not die until at least 2030 (and the final support won’t end until at least 2035), with or without another Zelda game! However, something will be required: either a Switch Pro, a Switch Lite 2.0, and/or a new massive game outside of Zelda. And, I’m 90% certain that at least one of these is coming by 2025. Remember: worst case for the Switch is that they bring out a whole new console by 2024-2025, and slowly phase out the Switch. This still won’t truly kill the Switch until at least 2030. I wouldn’t call that ‘soon’, as some people are! That’s still many years left. (I do think it’s a great time to buy the OLED, however — and it does seem that 90% of the library is complete now. Unless you really want to wait to see what they have planned for 2024-2025.)
Remember, too: Nintendo has stated that it won’t be gifting us new hardware until at least *mid-2024*; instead, it’s focusing on new games and ports as the Switch grows out. Seems logical to me, and pretty good news for the fans.
Tears of the Kingdom is not the end, but more like mid-journey for the Switch family, *with or without a new console* \– so, just enjoy the ride. 🙂