I made an estimation for Switch lifetime sales based on the 3DS sales and assuming that a new Nintendo console is releasing in 2024.
For Q4 (Jan-Mar) I assume 3,3 M sales, historically Switch sales for Q4 is 19% of total year sales and same have been assumed here. For 2025 Switch sales the same drop in sales(as%) as 3DS had 2017 to 2018 is assumed(first year after new console release). Following years, year over year sales drops for 3DS have been used to estimate Switch sales drops.
At least for 3DS, drop in sales was not that big in the 1st year of the Switch. Assuming a similar story for Switch, 2025 sales for the old system could be pretty decent, even if there is a new system on the market. Based on this, the Switch could possibly outsell PS2 and DS in 2025.
I thought this was pretty interesting. What do you think, is it useful to compare Switch sales to 3DS like this or are the differences too significant?